As of November 21, 2024, the U.S. residential real estate market exhibits a complex landscape characterized by regional variations, fluctuating mortgage rates, and evolving buyer behaviors. Recent data indicates a modest rebound in existing-home sales, influenced by temporary declines in mortgage rates and increased housing inventory. However, affordability challenges persist, and the market’s trajectory remains uncertain.
National Overview
In October 2024, existing-home sales in the United States rose by 3.4% from the previous month, reaching an annual rate of 3.96 million units. This marks the first year-over-year increase since mid-2021, with sales up by 2.9% compared to October 2023. The uptick is attributed to buyers capitalizing on a temporary dip in mortgage rates during the summer months. Contracts signed when rates were as low as 6.08% contributed to this increase.
Despite this positive movement, the market remains below pre-pandemic levels, indicating ongoing sluggishness. The national median existing-home price in October was $407,200, reflecting a 4% increase from the previous year and setting a record high for the month.
Mortgage Rates and Affordability
Mortgage rates have been a pivotal factor in recent market dynamics. After a period of decline, rates have risen again, reaching 6.84% in recent weeks. This increase, influenced by rising U.S. Treasury yields and economic uncertainties, poses challenges for affordability and may dampen future market activity.
The fluctuation in mortgage rates has led to varied buyer behaviors. Some buyers expedited their purchasing decisions to lock in lower rates, while others faced intensified competition in certain markets. For instance, buyers like Christie and Mark Seeley benefited from the lower rates, while others, such as Terence and Christine O’Neill, navigated competitive markets but still managed to find homes.
Regional Variations
The housing market’s performance varies significantly across regions. The Midwest experienced the highest regional sales increase at 6.7%, while other areas saw more modest gains. Inventory levels have risen, providing buyers with more options, yet affordability remains a concern, particularly in regions with higher median home prices.
Local Market Spotlight: Brockport, New York
Focusing on Brockport, New York, the local housing market reflects broader national trends with unique regional characteristics. As of August 2024, the median sale price of homes in Brockport was $188,000, marking a 10.7% decrease from the previous year. Conversely, the median sale price per square foot increased by 17.4% to $135. Homes in Brockport are selling for about 16% above list price and typically go pending in around nine days, indicating a highly competitive market.
Recent transactions in Brockport include a three-bedroom house at 32 Union St, sold for $145,000 on September 25, 2024, and a two-bedroom house at 21 Cailyn Way, sold for $285,000 on September 20, 2024. These sales demonstrate the range of property values and buyer activity in the area.
International Perspectives
Globally, residential real estate markets are experiencing varied trends. In Canada, home sales declined by 0.7% in July 2024 compared to June, with a 4.8% annual increase. The national average sale price remained relatively stable year-over-year.
In Australia, regions like South West Queensland have seen significant growth, with rural homes selling for millions. The Darling Downs and Maranoa regions reported a 11.56% year-over-year increase in dwelling values, with forecasts suggesting property values could double within five years.
Future Outlook
Looking ahead, the U.S. housing market is expected to face continued challenges. Rising mortgage rates and home prices are likely to impact affordability, potentially keeping sales sluggish through the end of the year. Experts predict that significant improvements in home sales may not occur until late 2025 or 2026, unless further reductions in mortgage rates materialize.
In conclusion, the residential real estate market as of November 2024 presents a nuanced picture. While certain indicators show signs of recovery, underlying challenges such as affordability and fluctuating mortgage rates continue to influence buyer behavior and market dynamics. Stakeholders should remain attentive to these factors as they navigate the evolving landscape.