New York’s luxury real-estate market is already feeling the tremors following Zohran Mamdani’s dramatic win in the Democratic mayoral primary on June 24, 2025.
Prominent brokers like Ryan Serhant have been inundated with clients halting or canceling deals, as high-income individuals reassess whether to invest in Manhattan amid fears of sweeping progressive policies.
Within minutes of the results, brokers like Serhant—who leads a brokerage with 500 agents across 19 states—were inundated. He candidly explained,
“My number one job will be moving people from New York to Florida. Again,” adding that clients are now “going to hold off on making any kind of investment in New York City.”
One high-profile client, hunting in Chelsea, emailed her broker right after Mamdani’s rival conceded:
“We are going to take a break from looking until there’s more clarity on the mayoral election.”
Another Manhattan tech founder, already taxed at ~50%, immediately asked, “Where can we go?”
Florida’s property market is experiencing a wave of interest reminiscent of the early pandemic exodus. Nathan Zeder of Jills Zeder Group disclosed that Florida sales hit $1.8 billion this year, fueled by inquiries from lifelong New Yorkers.
Serhant echoed this, pointing to booming activity across the Sun Belt—in Florida, Arizona, and Texas—as clients scope out alternatives to NYC. High-net-worth individuals are even eyeing overseas locales like Milan and Uruguay as a hedge against uncertainty.
Immediate Client Anxiety
- Within minutes of Mamdani’s victory, affluent buyers reached out expressing uncertainty, saying things like, “We are going to take a break from looking until there’s more clarity on the mayoral election.”
- One tech founder, already paying a 50% tax rate, began exploring alternatives, simply asking: “Where can we go?”
Sunshine State & Beyond: Next Hotspots
- Florida, especially South Florida including Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale, is seeing a surge in inquiries reminiscent of early COVID-era waves.
- Brokers at the Jills Zeder Group in Fort Lauderdale have recorded ~$1.8 billion in sales this year alone, with many long-time New Yorkers now texting brokers about relocating.
- Other unexpected destinations include Uruguay and Milan, as some ultra-wealthy families look for diversification options.
Industry & Political Ripples
- Wall Street and real-estate–linked stocks reacted negatively. Firms such as Vornado Realty Trust and SL Green have dropped over 5%, and smaller banks tied to multi-family housing also sank.
- While the business world scrambles to back moderate candidates like Eric Adams—now running as an independent—and urges Cuomo to withdraw and unify vote counts, many are quietly preparing exit strategies.
- Mamdani’s platform includes high-earner tax hikes, rent freezes on one million stabilized units, government-owned grocery stores, and expanded public transport—moves that have triggered what some dub the “Zohran effect.”
“Mamdani Discount” Potential
- Some brokers speculate that a wave of wealthy buyers leaving could depress Manhattan luxury prices, creating a temporary “Mamdani discount.”
- Others argue market fundamentals will reassert themselves once policy clarity returns.
A City at the Crossroads
- A divide is emerging between voters embracing affordability measures and real-estate/development interests pushing back, warning against heavy-handed rent controls that could further strain housing supply and operations.
- Analysts suggest democracy may be forcing a reckoning: whether to endure short-term disruption for long-term equity—or risk exacting economic costs.
What Happens Next?
- The November general election looms, with Mamdani facing off against Eric Adams and Republican Curtis Sliwa.
- How serious is the exodus? Real-estate voices say it’s early days—if Mamdani wins and implements policy, expect increasing executive or financial departures; if defeated, many orders and investments may resume.
- Either way, luxury brokers are now simultaneously preparing contingency plans for the wealthy and monitoring potential buying opportunities in Manhattan.